CONCLUSION
Signing a peace agreement does not mean that the conflict is resolved and there will be peace. The durations of peace agreements vary considerably, with some never taking hold and others lasting for centuries.
Thus, the first order of business in examining conflict settlement duration is to recognize the variation in outcome duration. The second issue is to recognize that we can, and recently have begun to, study this variation in a systematic manner. Recent studies have developed an increasingly sophisticated understanding of the factors that lead to conflict resolution. Third, it would be easy to look at the variation in findings on settlement durability and type, however, and disagree with our assessments of scientific progress. There is significant variation in studies' conclusions about the factors that influence outcomes. It is critical to recognize, however, that much of the variation results from the employment of different data sets that have fundamentally different units of analyses, definitions of settlement, and analytical frameworks. Varied empirical measures help to make our collective research stronger, and it is not necessary to choose the “best” data set. It is necessary, however, to recognize this variation and to understand how it is likely to influence research results. Nevertheless, some of the variation in findings on settlement duration results from failure to appreciate the importance of both selection effects and policy substitutability. Future theories need to incorporate these processes directly.Every war ends, but not every peace lasts. Blainey argues that theories of war should be theories of peace (1988). We think that theories of peace should also be theories of war - that is, scholars examining peace agreements and conflict resolution need to consider their fragility and durability and the factors that contribute to the resumption of conflict. This recognition will help to develop both a better theoretical understanding of the conflict resolution process and better conflict management practices.
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