Footnotes

1 Famous examples are Zeno’s paradox, Galileo’s ship, Maxwell’s demon, Schrodinger’s cat, Wagner’s friend, Putnam’s twin earth, Brams’s on dividing cakes (Chapter 2), and Milne’s on preventing war (Chapter 16).

2 The highly expected not happening is also a Black Swan. The failure of the hounds of the Baskervilles to bark pointed to the culprit as someone they knew.

3 A Black Swan only because the possibility of turning commercial planes into cruise missiles although tested in war games was not acted upon.

4 Natural scientists have abandoned alchemy, Aristotle’s dynamics, astrology, bodily humors, caloric theory, ether as carrier of light waves, fluidium as carrier of brain waves, the geocentric and heliocentric universe, Lamarckism, miasma theory of disease, phlogiston, phrenology, the plum pudding universe, and spontaneous generation, to name a few.

5 Druckman’s Doing Research: Methods of Inquiry for Conflict Analysis, covers quantitative and qualitative methods.