Is Mankind Becoming More Peaceful?
Pinker (2011), looking at human history across the last 10,000 years, sees violence declining at six major points. The first was the rise of cities about 5000 years ago, resulting in a decline in violent death from about 15% to about 3% (Chapter 14).
Second, the Late Middle Ages, especially in Europe, saw at least a tenfold decline in the rate of homicide, attributed to the consolidation of feudal territories into kingdoms with centralized authority and the nationalization of criminal justice. Third, the Enlightenment saw the widespread abolition of judicial torture and cruel punishment, reduced the list of capital crimes from hundreds to less than a dozen, and abolished blood sports, religious persecution, and slavery. Fourth, the Cold War, which due to nuclear deterrence prevented the great clash between the Soviet Union and NATO, saw rising valuation of human life over national grandeur. Fifth, the collapse of communism ended the proxy wars of the Cold War while the expansion of peacekeeping has brought the rate of documented direct deaths from political violence to a few hundredths of a percentage point. Sixth, Pinker sees a cascade of “rights revolutions” and a growing revulsion against aggression on smaller scales that will continue to bring the violence down in future.According to Pinker, the most obvious and important reason for this long-term trend is the monopolization of legitimate force by the state. Second is the growth of trade, which turns enemies into suppliers and customers. Third is the reduction of parochialism due to education and travel. Fourth, technological progress especially including mass media and the Internet makes it easier and faster to exchange goods and ideas over longer distances. Fifth, democracy increases reliance on nonviolent resolution of conflict.