STATISTICAL FINDINGS AND EARLY WARNING INDICATORS
It is one thing for us to summarize what we know about international disputes and rivalries that culminate in war, but the question is whether this research can be useful in heading off or ameliorating violent conflict in the international system.
Perhaps one of the more useful applications would have to do with early warning indicators. By ascertaining the kinds of actors and situations that culminate in war, the peace researcher and the policy community may be alerted to those situations that have historically escalated to war. Especially relevant here is the mandate of the United Nations Charter that encourages the Secretary-General to bring to the attention of the Security Council breaches of the peace and threats to the peace. Those advising national governments need to be much more aware of the second and third order consequences of the policies that they recommend. What might look like an effective influence strategy may well turn out historically to be a consistent stimulus toward conflict escalation. This kind of research suggests the relative virtues of multilateral versus unilateral or regional organization intervention, but so far has not shown us nearly enough.
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