Useful
Usefulness is vital to practioners who must solve real problems rather than write books about hypothetical ones. Theory should explain what happens and how, improve prediction, or lead to better ways to do things.
A theory that does not do one or more of those three is useless. However, theory is not a how-to manual. A cookbook will tell you the steps you must take to produce a cheese souffle and anyone who follows the steps will succeed. But, someone had to invent the souffle based on understanding such matters as the behavior of hot gases and the nature of emulsions, which is to say, the theory of cooking. Good conflict theory will identify what to consider, what to ignore, and how to put the components together. A manager still has to assign personnel, budget funds, and equipment, coordinate them, and solve unexpected problems.Usefulness depends partly on how well a theory explains causes and effects. Western philosophy distinguishes three types of cause. A sufficient cause guarantees a result regardless of all other causes present. It often is said (regardless of who is in office) that “The president will win re-election if the economy is good.” No matter what the challenger says about any other issue, a good economy alone is sufficient to guarantee re-election. If you know and can create a sufficient condition, you can ensure a result. However, the president still may be re-elected for other reasons even if the economy is bad.
A necessary cause is required for an effect. “The president will win re-election only if the economy is good” means that no matter what the president does on all other issues, re-election is impossible unless the economy is good. If you know and can remove a necessary cause, you can prevent an effect.
A necessary and sufficient cause is one that must result in an effect, which cannot occur without it. A particular gene mutation is both necessary and sufficient for the development of Tay-Sachs disease, since everyone with the mutation inevitably will develop it and no one without the mutation will ever have it.
Finally, a contributory cause increases the probability of an effect. Smoking makes lung cancer more likely but does not guarantee it.
Applied to conflict, theory suggests we must first correctly identify causes. If our analysis is wrong we will fail, and we may even make things worse. Some suggest poverty causes terrorism—but for the most part al-Qaeda’s leaders are rich, millions of poor are not terrorists, and nobody knows how to eliminate poverty. Some suggest democratic government is necessary for peace—but there have been peaceful, non-democratic societies and democracies that have started wars (Chapter 12). Some say women would eliminate war if they governed, but many women leaders have proved aggressive (Chapter 8). Theories are no better than the information from which they originate.