Contents

Abstract 1016

Keywords 1016

1. Theoretical models that predict strong policy effects 1017

2. Models that predict small policy effects on growth 1026

3. Empirics 1032

4. Some empirical caveats 1033

5. Newempiricalwork 1036

6. Policy episodes and transition paths 1050

7. Institutions versus policies 1054

8. Conclusions 1056

References 1056

I am grateful from comments received at seminars at Pompeu Fabra, Boston University, and Brown Uni­versity, and in the Handbook of Economic Growth conference at New York University.