Contents
PART I
Reading between the Lines 1
CHAPTER 1
The Adversarial Nature of Financial Reporting 3
The Purpose of Financial Reporting 4
The Flaws in the Reasoning 8
Small Profits and Big Baths 11
Maximizing Growth Expectations 12
Downplaying Contingencies 18
The Importance of Being Skeptical 20
Conclusion 24
PART II
The Basic Financial Statements 27
CHAPTER 2
The Balance Sheet 29
The Value Problem 30
Issues of Comparability 31 “Instantaneous” Wipeout of Value 33
How Good Is Goodwill? 34
New Roman">Losing Value the Old-Fashioned Way 37
True Equity Is Elusive 39
Pros and Cons of a Market-Based Equity Figure 42
Undisclosed Hazards 45
The Common Form Balance Sheet 46
Conclusion 48
CHAPTER 3
The Income Statement
Making the Numbers Talk 49
How Real Are the Numbers? 55 Conclusion 90
CHAPTER 4
The Statement of Cash Flows
49
91
The Cash Flow Statement and the LBO 93 Analytical Applications 98
Cash Flow and the Company Life Cycle 99
The Concept of Financial Flexibility 107
In Defense of Slack 110
Conclusions 112
PART III
A Closer Look at Profits
CHAPTER 5 What is Profit?
Bona Fide Profits versus Accounting Profits 117
What Is Revenue? 118
Which Costs Count? 120
How Far Can the Concept Be Stretched? 122 Conclusion 123
CHAPTER 6
Revenue Recognition
Informix’s Troubles Begin 125
Calling the Signals 130
Astray on Layaway 136
Recognizing Membership Fees 137
A Potpourri of Liberal Revenue Recognition Techniques 140 Conclusion 152
115
117
125
CHAPTER 7
Expense Recognition 153
AOL’s Search for Wiggle Room 153
IBM’s Innovative Expense Reduction 156
Simple Analysis Foils Elaborate Deception 157
Oxford’s Plans Go Astray 159 Conclusion 162
CHAPTER 8
The Applications and Limitations of EBITDA 163
EBIT, EBITDA, and Total Enterprise Value 164
The Role of EBITDA in Credit Analysis 168
Abusing EBITDA 172
A More Comprehensive Cash Flow Measure 174
Working Capital Adds Punch to Cash Flow Analysis 177 Conclusion 179
CHAPTER 9
The Reliability of Disclosures and Audits 181
An Artful Deal 182
Death Duties 185
Chainsaw Al 186
Stumbling Down the Audit Trail 190
Conclusion 191
CHAPTER 10
Mergers-and-Acquisitions Accounting 193
The Twilight of Pooling-of-Interests Accounting 194
Maximizing Postacquisition Reported Earnings 197
Managing Acquisition Dates and Avoiding Restatements 198 Conclusion 200
CHAPTER 11
Profits in Pensions 201
An Admonition from the SEC
Conclusion 207
PART IV
| Forecasts and Security Analysis |
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| 209 |
| CHAPTER 12 Forecasting Financial Statements |
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| 211 |
| A Typical One-Year Projection | 211 |
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| Sensitivity Analysis with Projected Financial Statements | 224 | ||
| How Accurate Are Projections in Practice? | 230 |
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| Projecting Financial Flexibility | 232 |
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| Pro Forma Financial Statements Multiyear Projections 244 Conclusion 265 | 234 |
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| CHAPTER 13 Credit Analysis |
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| 267 |
| Balance Sheet Ratios 268 Income Statement Ratios 280 Statement of Cash Flows Ratios Combination Ratios 287 | 285 |
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| Relating Ratios to Credit Risk Conclusion 313 | .5pt 0cm.5pt; height:30.5pt'>
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| CHAPTER 14 Equity Analysis |
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| 315 |
| The Dividend Discount Model | 316 |
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| The Price-Earnings Ratio 322 Why P/E Multiples Vary 325 The Du Pont Formula 333 |
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| Valuation through Restructuring Potential | 336 |
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| Conclusion 343 |
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| Bibliography |
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| 345 |
| Glossary |
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| 347 |
| Notes |
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| 365 |
| Index |
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| 377 |