Weapons of a Postmodern World

The history of warfare is a history of changing weapon-systems and changing alliances. This is the first major global conflict to have free access to artificial intelligence technology.

All the NATO countries, and the majority of the UN signatories, have joined in a strong chorus of disapproval of Putin’s Ukrainian invasion. There was a similar, although fainter, negative reaction when he took Crimea. Governments know that their people feel strongly sympathetic to Zelensky, and governments always need to please their people.

The Zelensky magic has conjured up an alliance with the world. Putin, on the other hand, is alone in this with Belarus. Putin is easily capable of choosing his own path, but the global solidarity forming behind Zelensky is a formidable wartime asset for a tiny country. The way Zelensky is playing his limited hand is that he wants Ukraine to be a neutral buffer-state between Russia and Europe; a sort of Eastern Switzerland. If he can pull this off, it will be of enormous benefit to Ukraine in the long run.

Putin wants land and people and control over the entire region. That increases the fear of Europe and the world. Zelensky’s line, that if Ukraine falls, the rest of Europe could be next, is touching a chord among his supporters. Weapons Deals and Gifts

The global embrace of Ukraine’s cause has resulted in a deluge of equipment being shipped into the war zone. The USA has sent plane-loads of Javelin missiles. Belgium has gifted 5000 assault rifles. Arms manufacturers are falling over each other to donate (and showcase) their weaponry.

This is both proving and producing what Putin has said, that Ukraine is a danger to Russia because of its ties with NATO. It makes a handy talking point for Pravda, and increases the dread among Putin’s constituency. Fear makes an effective motivator of support, and both sides know its value. It also means, however, that Ukraine has had the firepower to resist and retard Russian moves on the ground. Sanctions & the Power of Global Opinion

There are a trickle of mercenaries from around the globe fighting on the ground in Ukraine, but the most devastating support from Ukraine’s allies is a crushing embargo on Russia. Banking facilities in Russia have been revoked. Trade has come to a standstill, even with natural gas, Russia’s last remaining chip to play. Russia struggles to find buyers for its oil, steel, or any other products. Heck, even McDonald’s has shut down operations in Russia!

The country has been backed into isolation. Its sports people are being spurned. Medvedev, a brilliant tennis player with no connection to Putin’s war, has been banned from the Wimbledon Tennis Tournament. It’s not his fault—it’s the “Russia” brand.

If Ukraine can hold out, the discomfort on ordinary Russians exerted by these sanctions might be enough to end the war in their favor. Putin is reciprocating by squeezing what he can out of occupied Ukrainian areas—agricultural equipment and grain shipments are leaving the area of Kherson for other regions of the curtailed Russian empire. People with the memory of the Holodomor are deeply troubled. Another way of reciprocation is Putin’s declaration of his intent to push through his purposes by the use of nuclear weapons. This has always been a terrifying stick to wave, as people ask themselves how much Putin is prepared to lose to achieve his ambitions.

Putin might be able to coerce or manipulate the appearance of support. In the long run, however, Russian morale will be quickly sapped if its Western luxuries and necessities are curtailed for too long. Is Ukraine really worth it? people will start to say.

Indications are that both Russia and Ukraine are furiously trying to hack each other’s systems. With an unseen army of extremely bright young minds, it must be an adrenaline filled space! The focus of Russian hacking has been to break down Ukrainian systems in conjunction with missile attacks. Ukrainian hackers are encouraged to excel, therefore, by the thought that the building they are sitting in might be actually blown to bits. This is real life World of Warcraft, only you never get a new life.

Where Ukraine has an advantage is in the sheer numbers of hackers aligned to their cause. This is warfare that can be launched from anywhere on the globe, and Ukraine has consciously targeted global support in this “cybermilitancy.” The day after the Russian incursion, the Ukrainian Minister for Digital Transformation went online calling for “digital talents for the creation of an IT army” (SEIBT, 2022). Russian and Belarussian command and logistics systems have had to endure a barrage of irritating and damaging infiltrations by such attack-groups as Anonymous, Squad303, and Cyber Partisan.

The feared Russian hacking capability seems to have been outgunned in this arena in the early stages of the 2022 war. It is an interesting area to watch, and appears to be a crucial weapon in the arsenals of the two combatants.

Key Takeaways

Russia has a conscious strategy to divide and dominate its neighboring countries. The world needs to consider whether there is any limit to its ambitions. The 2022 conflict has shown that global warfare is at a technological turning point. New weapons can turn old advantages on their head.

Nonetheless, alliances are always critical in warfare. Peacetime should be largely devoted to making friends. Russia has not done this for a long time, and is demonstrably afraid of unified action against it, which means that the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO was one of the key triggers for this war. Gains for NATO are losses for a burgeoning neo-USSR.

That then, is where we have to draw the line under history to this point. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has not blown up out of nowhere. It is the latest in a long series of upheavals that has torn Ukraine down the centuries. As with all conflicts, however, people who wage them fight in the hope that this at last will be the “war to end all wars.”