Discussion
While man, who is supposed to have developed considerably throughout history, gained the power to dominate nature, and he also endured the negative consequences of living in a community and settled life.
The most important of these are deadly epidemics. Epidemics have many direct and indirect effects, both visible and invisible. The epidemics that changed the ages, affected the course of wars, and shaped the destruction of the economic order and understanding to a great extent throughout history, are the ancient despair of humanity for which they paid many social, psychological, economic and financial costs.The pandemic we are experiencing is a very serious crisis and much more devastating effects are predicted when compared to the 2008 Global Economic Crisis. In addition, being unable to predict when the epidemic will end and the uncertainty that the subsequent epidemic waves will create a much deeper impact, drag the policies of economic and political actors into uncertainty. COVID-19 has brought the whole world to an important historical turn in its process. In this historical turn, the whole world has focused on two main points. The first one is; to combat the epidemic, to minimize the loss of life and to get rid of the epidemic, the second is to take measures today to prevent the crises and damages that will occur in the post-epidemic economies.
In this context, due to the COVID-19 epidemic that has affected the whole world, states and international organizations have had to put into effect various economic and financial practices in order to combat the epidemic and to prevent the bad course of economies in this process. In particular, it is necessary to establish an environment in which the market and households are supported by public expenditure instruments. Considering the course of decrease in foreign capital investments, the increase in public expenditures instead of private sector expenditures is a harbinger of new bottlenecks.
In this context, it is seen that many countries have developed policies in this direction. On the other hand, the increase in spending tendency increases the income need, and the taxation and borrowing tendencies of the public also increase. However, the ongoing uncertainty and health risks delay the recovery processes of the markets. The necessity of providing support such as postponing loan debt payments of the sector employees and business owners, increasing short-time working allowance supports, and delaying the submission of declarations will further increase the need for public financing.The last vaccination studies and the transition to phase 3 level for 11 vaccines have given hope to the whole world in combating this microscopic enemy. However, vaccination will also entail serious costs and create serious financial burdens on states. In Turkey, where how many people have survived this disease and developed up immunity are not fully known. However, since at least two doses of vaccine are required per person, even for the vaccination of half of the population, we need at least 80 million doses of vaccine. The main problem is how much funding the government should allocate as these 80 million doses of vaccine will be available to citizens for free. The US government made an agreement to receive 100 million doses of vaccine (mRNA vaccines) developed by Pfizer and Biontech as early as July. Again, EU officials announced that they could purchase vaccines worth of 10 billion dollars from the same two companies and pay 15.50 euros per dose. Again, the UK has already signed contracts for 30 million doses of vaccine, while Canada has signed contracts for 20 million and New Zealand for 1.5 million doses of vaccine. Today, price of the vaccine called Sinovac (inactivated vaccine), which Turkey began to purchase, is $29 in China. Turkey is required to make a huge amount of payment for 80-100 million doses of vaccine, if we consider the unit price of the vaccine as $20.
The problem of where to find this resource also shows the seriousness of the issue. Storage and distribution costs will be added other than obtaining the vaccine. In other words, vaccine costs have begun to be included in the expenditure items by which the states weighed down.In this book, the epidemic problem that we address in various aspects, in particular for COVID-19 is deemed to be a problem that a single country cannot solve alone. The epidemic problem that goes beyond borders affects every aspect of people’s lives. In this process, the issue should not be seen as a health issue per se. It is obvious that the subject has many psychological, social, economic and even technological reflections. It is insufficient for states to fight alone against all these variables. The new era after the epidemics, in which the world is affected globally this way, comes with new offers. A new period will begin when the habits of the pre-epidemic will change completely.
Even if the measures proposed by states and international organizations are necessary and sufficient to combat Covid 19 in the short term, the dangers that we do not know yet and that we cannot predict, called “black swan”, are at the door. It seems compulsory, for long-term solutions, that the states and international organizations make preparations today and establish strong cooperation networks as well as common funds. Therefore, if the results of the fiscal measures announced and put into practice do not create a positive effect as expected, not the country that fails alone, but the whole world, which is economically integrated with each other, will not come out of the recession quickly. The ability of states to strengthen their own immune systems against this microscopic enemy depends on sound financial measures to be taken today and close cooperation between countries to be established.
2021 has started to be experienced as a year in which negative expectations from 2020 continue, but the conditions for the management of the process are met. The most important indicator of this is that the vaccine has been developed. State support, civil society and solidarity approaches will have an impact on the correct management of 2021 risks. The world is at the edge of the patience limits regarding the pandemic. However, with the diminishing effects of this pandemic, a new recovery move will not be far. However, in solidarity societies, the negative effects of this process are expected to end with a rapid decrease.
Izmir March 2021 Prof. Dr. Ibrahim Attila ACAR Prof. Dr. Bernur ACIKGOZ.