Outlook of the Pandemic and Necessity of a Public Intervention

World Health Organization Representative in China was notified of the outbreak on 31 December 2019. WHO named the disease COV1D-19 on 11 February 2020, and as of 26 February 2020, the disease was detected on all continents, except for Antarctica.

Due to its epidemic nature, COVID-19 can cause collapse of any health system, as well as increase the mortality rates. Therefore, countries are unprepared and insuf­ficient in terms of the number of hospitals, beds, intensive care units and equipment, and the number of qualified health professionals. This means that the number of patients that can be properly treated at any given time is limited. This scenario indi­cates that when a country’s capacity is exceeded, it carries a higher risk of death. Hence, all countries are trying to reduce the rate of contamination and extend the contamination over time with different measures. This way, the health system will continue to exist and will try to reduce the mortality rates by means of treatment opportunities (Gourinchas 2020).

Although the social measures taken to slow the spread of the epidemic are similar across countries, the degree of these measures varies in terms of stopping economic activities. According to the classification made by Qakmaklt et al. (2020), it is possible to evaluate countries in four different categories, in which the degree of social measures, increasing number of patients and deaths, economic problems and public pressure are also effective:

i. Full quarantine (Denmark, New Zealand).

ii. Mass immunity (UK).

iii. Partial quarantine (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Iran and Russia).

iv.

There are practices that differ between states in the USA. However, it is still the country with the most widespread epidemic and the highest number of deaths. Here, the fact that the epidemic is observed more in socio-economically inadequate regions triggers other discussions.

Table 8.1 below includes explanations regarding the social distancing measures taken by the selected countries according to the said classification.

These health measures taken by the public have yielded strong results in the short term. In this respect, these measures appear as correct policies that should be taken in the short term. However, in the short term, the flattening of the epidemic curve inevitably steeps the macroeconomic recession curve. Because of the increasing social distancing measures required the closure of schools, universities, and work­places that were not a priority for social life, and therefore, most of the working­age population stayed at home. Although some of the active working population could work from home, this constituted a small part of the overall workforce. Even though working from home is an option, the short-term disruption of work and family routines has greatly affected productivity (Gourinchas 2020). This has caused economic recession across the world. However, according to Qakmali et al. (2020), the economic costs of the epidemic were lower in countries that applied short-term but full restrictions.

Table 8.1 Social distancing measures taken in selected countries to combat COV1D-19

France

The COVID-19 outbreak started to spread rapidly in France at the end of February. This resulted in inadequate hospitals due to the relatively limited number of beds in intensive care units in some regions. Nevertheless, the rapid expansion of intensive care capacity and the transfer of some patients to less affected areas alleviated the bottleneck in the health system, but the capacity problem of the health system forced the authorities to take action from mid-March.

As 21 June, 160,377 confirmed cases, 29,640 deaths and 74,372 recoveries were reported after hospitalization

Germany

The first COV1D-19 case in Germany was reported on 27 January 2020. The German government did not consider special measures necessary in the first place. However, as of 13 March, it resorted to restrictive measures. Accordingly, the German government closed schools and kindergartens, postponed academic terms and banned elder care home visits to protect the elderly. On 22 March, the government declared national curfew, allowing individuals to leave their living quarters for certain activities (shopping, sports, etc.). Public meetings with more than two foreign participants were banned between 22 March and 5 June, although they were implemented by loosening since 6 May. However, restaurants, businesses operating in non-priority sectors, and cultural and entertainment facilities were closed. Regulations on border controls that restrict the domestic mobility of citizens, including special regulations on seasonal agricultural workers and some vehicles, were introduced. Although meetings with broad participation were prohibited until 31 August, gradual opening of workplaces and schools was allowed as of April 20

As of June 29, Germany announced only 262 new cases and 4 COVID-19 deaths

TheUK

The first case in the UK was reported on 28 February 2020

Social distancing restrictions started across the country on 23 March.

(continued)

Table 8.1 (continued)

Denmark

The first case was reported in Denmark on 27 February 2020, and there was a rapid increase in the number of cases in early March. In the face of this increase, Denmark closed all overseas borders as of 13 March, banned all activities requiring more than 10 participation and closed schools, universities, personal care centres, entertainment canters, etc. Public personnel working in non-priority services went on leave, and all private sector enterprises were directed to work from home. On 6 April, officials announced that the restrictions would be gradually relaxed. Accordingly, in the first phase, some schools and health facilities were opened as well as self-employed workers from mid-April. The second phase started on 11 May and restaurants, retailers, other schools and cultural activities opened. As of June 15, it was announced that the borders with Germany, Iceland and Norway would be opened. In the third phase, it was announced that the 10-person limit previously envisioned for the events was increased to 30-50 people. In addition, the authorities began to work to ensure more populations were tested for COVID-19 as part of the reopening strategy

The United States

The first case was reported in the USA at the end of January, and restrictive health measures were initiated at the state level for the first time in California as of the end of March.

Turkey

The first COVID-19 case was reported in Turkey on 10 March 2020, and all schools and universities were closed on 12 March, distance education system was introduced. Curfew was imposed for people over 65 with chronic diseases as of 22 March. Later, the curfew was imposed for children aged 20 and under. Other measures include: strict restrictions on inter-provincial travel, postponement of all international flights, closure of businesses operating in non-priority areas, closure of recreation and entertainment venues, and prohibition of all meetings and organizations. In addition, public employees started to work from home, and businesses in the private sector were also sensitive to this issue. These restrictions were gradually removed from the beginning of June, provided that the criteria for social distancing rules were followed. The necessity to use masks outside the home continues from the beginning of the epidemic Turkey reported, as of 25 June, that 3.1 million COVID-19 testing was conducted, 193.115 cases were detected and 5405 people died due to COVID-19. The Ministry of Health announced that an antibody test would be applied to 153,000 people randomly selected at the national level as of 15 June. Studies are continuing on alternative measure scenarios against the possibility that the epidemic attacks for the second time

Source OECD (2020a, b); IMF Policy Tracker

8.3