FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTIONS

Relative to other subjects in the conflict management field, peacekeeping research is a relatively recent focus and accordingly it is also relatively underdeveloped. Nevertheless, the rise in the number and frequency of peace operations in the world has attracted the atten­tion of many scholars, who now examine these phenomena in a more systematic fashion.

Most obviously, greater attention to theo­retical concerns is a prerequisite for progress. The easiest path would be to exploit existing theoretical approaches at least in the short run, but this is unlikely to produce a broad understanding of peacekeeping in the long run. At best, it can illuminate various pieces without revealing the whole picture. Accordingly, attempts at mid-range theory may be the best strategy. Such a result must include theory that can account for when peacekeepers are deployed and what kinds of impact they have in an integrated explanation.

The construction of theoretical arguments will need to be followed by empirical validation on more than the single case that dominates the headlines of the day. Unfortunately, much of current peacekeeping research is inadequate. A survey of the articles appearing in the journal International Peacekeeping since its inception finds most are not concerned with theory and focus only a single country's peacekeeping policies or a single peacekeeping operation. Instead, scholars need to draw generalizations across a broad set of operations. Yet, they need to be equally sensitive to variations across missions and that different models may be needed to understand different missions. To carry out such research, scholars must construct data sets dealing with peacekeeping and its relevant characteristics in particular. Using current data sets on conflicts has some significant limitations. First, this leads to using only simplified peacekeeping variables (peacekeeping vs. no peacekeeping or cate­gories of operations) as these data sets do not include any information on the operations. Second, these data sets are designed for time­series analyses, but peacekeeping operations and their outcomes show limited variation on a year-to-year basis and must be analyzed in the aggregate. This means gathering data on peacekeeping operations as the units of analysis.

How does one decide whether peacekeep­ing missions differ or what variables might be collected in a data-gathering effort? It comes back to good theorizing, which will guide the way. Without effective theorizing, peacekeeping research will remain in its nascent stage, and policy relevant conclusions will continue to be drawn on limited and probably misleading grounds.