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Booms and slumps

Let and W∣j denote the wealth of entrepreneurs and workers at the beginning of period (t + 1). Total savings from the previous period t is by definition equal to:

Total investment demand in the (high-yield) production activity by entrepreneurs, is equal to:

Moreover, in this AK model, the rate of return on the high-yield production technology remains equal to σι at all levels of invest­ment.

Thus entrepreneurs who always seek to maximize their end-of-period wealth (which allows them to maximize consump­tion and savings), will try to invest up to their investment capacity Consequently, investment in the low-yield (home) activity will be equal to the residual

and in particular it will be positive only due to the limited borrow­ing capacity of entrepreneurs. In the absence of credit constraints, entrepreneurs would always be able to absorb the total amount of savings and thereby maximize their end-of-period revenues.

During periods when investment demand is higher than aggreg­ate savings, all savings are invested in the high-yield production activity, so that the growth rate of the economy is the AK (or Harrod-Domar) rate, defined as the ratio between output in two successive periods4:

g = (1 - α)σ.

We refer to these periods as "booms." In contrast, during periods when investment demand is less than aggregate savings, the fraction,

of aggregate savings is invested in the low-yield activity at rate σ2 so that the growth rate is lower than g, equal to:

We refer to such periods as "slumps."

3.3

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Source: Aghion P., Banerjee A.. Volatility and Growth. Oxford, Oxford University Press,2005. - 159p.. 2005
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