<<
>>

CONCLUSION

Efficient Market Hypothesis is a milestone on the road to Modern Finance Theory. Following its first presentation to literature by Fama in 70s, EMH has gained a great deal of interest among the academic environment.

A large body of literature has been written in order to discuss its effects over financial markets, and notably over stock markets. The hypothesis is both simple and empirically testable. These properties give rise to its domi­nance over the challenging theories. However, the internal difficulties involved in testing strict hypotheses about the EMH would make it difficult to reject the hypothesis completely. Proponents of the hypothesis could argue that the literature had indeed uncovered some interesting insights but there is no potential to build a trading system which relies on these anomalies.

Finally, it is noteworthy that; EMH does not assume that all investors are rational, but it does assume that markets are rational. Additionally the EMH does not assume that markets can foresee the future, but it does assume that markets make unbiased forecast errors of the future.

REFERENCES

Adam, K. (2002). On the relation between robust and Bayesian decision making. European Central Bank: University of Mannheim.

Andrikopoulos, P. (2007). Modern finance vs. behavioural finance: An overview of key con­cepts and major arguments. The ICFAI Journal of Behavioural Finance, 4(2), 53-70.

Athanasoulis, S. G., & Shiller, R. J. (2000). The significance of the market portfolio. Review of Financial Studies, 13(2), 301-329. doi:10.1093/ rfs/13.2.301

Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (2005). A model of investor sentiment. Advances in Be­havioral Finance, 2, 423-459.

Beechey, M., Gruen, D. W., & Vickery, J. (2000). The efficient market hypothesis: A survey. Reserve Bank of Australia, Economic Research Depart­ment.

Benartzi, S., & Thaler, R. H. (1995). Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(1), 73-92. doi:10.2307/2118511

Black, F. (1986). Noise. The Journal of Finance, 41(3), 529-543. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986. tb04513.x

Bodie, Z., Kane, A., & Marcus, A. J. (1995). Es­sentials of investments. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Bowman, R. G., & Buchanan, J. (1995). The efficient market hypothesis-A discussion of institutional, agency and behavioural issues. Aus­tralian Journal of Management, 20(2), 155-166. doi:10.1177/031289629502000203

Campbell, J. Y. (2000). Asset pricing at the millen­nium. The Journal of Finance, 55(4), 1515-1567. doi:10.1111/0022-1082.00260

Daniel, K., & Titman, S. (2000). Market efficiency in an irrational world (No. w7489). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Dow, J., & Gorton, G. (1995). Stock market efficiency and economic efficiency: Is there a connection? (No. w5233). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417. doi:10.2307/2325486

Fama, E. F. (1991). Efficient capital markets: II. The Journal of Finance, 46(5), 1575-1617. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04636.x

Fama, E. F. (1998). Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance. Journal of Finan­cial Economics, 49(3), 283-306. doi:10.1016/ S0304-405X(98)00026-9

Fama, E., Fisher, L., Jensen, M., & Roll, R. (1969). The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International Economic Review, 10.

Farmer, J. D., & Lo, A. W. (1999). Frontiers of finance: Evolution and efficient markets. Proceed­ings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 96(18), 9991-9992. doi:10.1073/pnas.96.18.9991

Froot, K., & Dabora, E. (1998). How are stock prices affected by the location of trade? NBER Working Paper Series.

Glaeser, E. (2003). Psychology and the market.

Harvard Institute of Economic Research Discus­sion Paper.

Glaser, M., Noth, M., & Weber, M. (2003). Behavioral finance. Sonderforschungsbereich: Universitat Mannheim.

Glen, P. (2005). The efficient capital market hypothesis, chaos theory, and the insider filing requirements of the securities and exchange act of 1934: The predictive power of form 4 filings. Fordham Journal of Corporate and Financial Law, 11(1), 85-115.

Hagin, R. L. (2004). Investment management: Portfolio diversification, risk, and timing--fact and fiction. New York: Wiley.

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjec­tive probability: A judgment of representative­ness. Cognitive Psychology, 3(3), 430-454. doi:10.1016/0010-0285(72)90016-3

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econo- metrica, 47(2), 263-291. doi:10.2307/1914185

Kim, K. A., & Nofsinger, J. R. (2005). Institutional herding, business groups, and economic regimes: Evidence from Japan. The Journal of Business, 78(1), 213-242. doi:10.1086/426524

Montier, J. (2003). Part man, part monkey. Be­havioural Investing: A Practitioner’s Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance.

Morien, T. (2005). Modern portfolio theory criti­cisms. Retrieved from www.travismorien.com

Mullainathan, S., & Thaler, R. H. (2000). Behav­ioral economics. National Bureau of Economic Research.

Samuelson, P. A. (1963). Risk and uncertainty: A fallacy oflarge numbers. Scientia, 98(4-5), 49-56.

Shiller, R. J. (2001). Irrational exuberance. New York: Broadway Books.

Shiller, R. (2003). From efficient market theory to behavioral finance. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 83-104. doi:10.1257/089533003321164967

Statman, M. (1999). Behavioral finance: Past battles and future engagements. FinancialAnalysts Journal, 18-27. doi:10.2469/faj.v55.n6.2311

Timmermann, A., & Granger, C. W. (2004). Ef­ficient market hypothesis and forecasting. Inter­national Journal of Forecasting, 20(1), 15-27.

doi:10.1016/S0169-2070(03)00012-8

Cornicello, G. (2004). Behavioural finance and speculative bubble. (Doctoral dissertation). Uni­versity of Bocconi.

Gorener, R. (2003). Investors’ behavior and ro­tated asset pricing models: Empirical evidence. (Doctoral dissertation). Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Hollman, W. A. (2005). Buy and sell decisional analysis of financial advisors. (Doctoral disserta­tion). Walden University.

Nofsinger, J. R. (1996). Tests of herding and posi­tivefeedback trading strategies by institutions and individuals. (Doctoral dissertation). Washington State University.

Shen, Q. (2002). Momentum and contrarian strate­gies in financial markets. (Doctoral dissertation). Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

Tetlock, P. C. (2004). Investors’ expectations in financial markets. (Doctoral dissertation). Harvard University.

KEY TERMS AND DEFINITIONS

Agent's Rationality: A rational agent is an agent who has clear preferences, models uncer­tainty via expected values, and always chooses to perform the action with the optimal expected outcome for itself from among all available actions.

Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH): This hypothesis asserts that financial markets are informationally efficient thus it is impossible to make abnormal returns in the financial markets.

Law of One Price: The theory that the price of a given security, commodity or asset will have the same price in all locations when exchange rates are taken into consideration.

Limits of Arbitrage Theory: This theory con­stitutes that there are many constraints in financial markets that limits the arbitrage opportunities for the rational investors, and resulting inefficiency in financial markets.

Random Walk Hypothesis: In finance theory, the hypothesis states that financial markets and stock prices follow a random path, without any influence by historical price movements. Accord­ing to this hypothesis it is impossible to predict future movements in financial markets or stock prices by using historical data.

This work was previously published in Global Strategies in Banking and Finance, edited by Hasan Dinςer and Umit Hacioglu, pages 173-186, copyright 2014 by Business Science Reference (an imprint of IGI Global).

<< | >>
Source: Banking, Finance, and Accounting: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications. IGI Global,2014. — 1593 p.. 2014
More financial literature on Economics.Studio

More on the topic CONCLUSION:

  1. Conclusion
  2. Conclusion
  3. Conclusion
  4. Conclusion
  5. Conclusion
  6. Conclusion
  7. Conclusion
  8. Conclusions
  9. Conclusion
  10. Conclusion