Future Projections of Energy Demand
From 1981 to 2001, the annual rate of growth of primary commercial energy demand was 6%. It is expected that the demand would be 6.6% by the end of Present Plan period (2002-2007) while it would be 6.1 % by the end of next plan period (2011-2012).
Table 1.2 shows the energy demand for various fuels in the coming years.Table 1.2 An Estimate of the Energy Demand
| Primary Fuel | Demand in Original | Demand (MTOE) | ||
| 2006-2007 | 2011-2012 | 2006-2007 | 2011-2012 | |
| Coal (MT) | 460.50 | 620.00 | 19.00 | 254.93 |
| Lignite (MT) | 57.79 | 81.54 | 15.51 | 22.05 |
| Oil (MT) | 134.50 | 172.47 | 144.58 | 185.40 |
| Natural Gas (BCM) | 47.45 | 64.00 | 42.70 | 57.60 |
| Hydropower (BkWh) | 148.08 | 215.66 | 12.73 | 18.54 |
| Nuclear Power (BkWh) | 23.15 | 54.74 | 6.04 | 14.64 |
| Wind Power (BkWh) | 4.00 | 11.62 | 0.35 | 1.00 |
| Total Commercial Energy | — | — | 411.91 | 553.68 |
| Non Commercial Energy | — | — | 151.30 | 170.25 |
| Total Energy Demand | 563.21 | 723.93 | ||
*MTOE= Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent
Source : Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources
The data in Table 1.2 shows that coal dominates the energy demand scenario in India. Its share being 46.13% and 46.04% in the final years of two Plans, respectively. The demand for oil is expected to grow at an average rate of 3.6% over next five years. The average global energy demand growth rate is, however, 2.1% (Planning Commission, 2002).
Natural gas is visualised as the fuel of the future as per the India Hydrocarbon Vision 2025.
1.5