SUMMARY AND CONCLUDING REMARKS

In this chapter we have outlined the broad facts about long-run trends in the distribution of income and wealth. The focus has been on findings primarily stemming from the top income literature and recent studies of wealth concentration, using historical tax and estate data.

When it comes to describing the overall developments of income inequality across the 26 countries studied in Section 7.2, there are three possible broad eras that can usefully be distinguished. The first is the period before the First World War, the second is the period from around 1914 until 1980, and the third consists of the time thereafter. In the first period evidence is relatively clear on the fact that inequality was historically high in the beginning of the twentieth century. To what extent this high level was present throughout the nineteenth century or if it gradually increased is, however, still less clear due to the lack of data. There are some signs of increased inequality but many studies also point toward high and relatively stable levels before the twentieth century.

The period from around 1914 to 1980 is characterized by substantial drops in top income shares in almost all countries for which we have data. The top percentile share falls from around 20% before 1914 to between 5% and 10% around 1980. The decreasing income share for the lower parts of the top decile group are much more modest. In fact, in some countries the income share of lower half of the top decile group (P90—95) remains almost constant throughout the twentieth century. Thus, distinguishing developments within the top group seem important.

The development after 1980 is less homogenous. In some countries, especially the United States and the United Kingdom, inequality has risen sharply. This increase has taken place from a level that was already high in relation to others before it started. In countries like Sweden and Finland, increases have also been substantial but here from internationally low levels to levels that are much higher but remain among the lowest. In, for example, France, Germany, and Japan, there is no clear upward trend but in abso­lute terms inequality remains higher than in the Nordic countries.

Turning to the development of the wealth distribution in the 10 countries for which we have long-run data, studied in Section 7.3, a picture similar to that of income emerges. In most places (the United States being the notable exception) wealth concentration was relatively constant and historically high before the twentieth century. Even if cross­country comparisons should be made with caution, there seems to have been important level differences. Estimated top wealth shares at the beginning of the twentieth century were clearly higher in the United Kingdom and in France than, for example, in the United States and in Switzerland, Finland, and Norway, with Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands in between. Starting around the First World War, the top percentile group wealth shares decreased substantially until around 1980. Thereafter the develop­ment is again more diverse but also much more uncertain and debated than for income

In terms of understanding these developments, we have, in Section 7.4, discussed a number of suggested theories and empirical regularities that aim at explaining various aspects.

7.5.1 Going Forward

When looking ahead a number of areas seem promising in terms of future research. First, the ongoing work of extending the top income database is obviously important, both in terms increasing the number of countries, but also in terms of adding new dimensions.

Second, making use of the top income database seems important. Numerous aspects of long-run developments can now be studied over a time span previously void of sys­tematic inequality data. In doing so it is, as emphasized by Atkinson and Brandolini (2006), it is important to take an integrated approach to theory and estimation and to use proper econometric techniques to address deficiencies in the data.

Third, results on the importance of changes within the top illustrate how develop­ment can be missed or misinterpreted if one focuses solely on overall inequality. These findings also pose challenges for theories trying to explain the recent surge in income inequality. It is in general quite likely that different explanations apply to different parts of the distribution.

Fourth, a number of the recent findings illustrate the importance of the interplay between wealth and work in determining total income. Also, when income is deter­mined not just by actions over an individual’s lifetime, inheritance also becomes impor­tant. This has important effects on a wide range of issues such as optimal taxation (Piketty and Saez, 2013b) and the future development of inheritance flows (Piketty, 2011).

These are some of the research areas that will surely be important for our understand­ing of long-run inequality trends, their causes, and their consequences.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We have received valuable comments from Anthony Atkinson and seminar participants at the conference “Recent Advances in the Economics of Income Distribution” held at the Paris School of Economics, April 2013. We thank Wiemer Salverda for sharing wealth distribution data on the Netherlands. Data underlying all graphs and tables in the chapter are available on the authors’ Web sites or on request.

APPENDIX

Table 7.A1 Sources of the historical wealth inequality data

Table 7.A1 Sources of the historical wealth inequality data—cont'd

Note: List ofsources and data definitions ofthe wealth distribution data used in the chapter. See text for further descriptions of the data. The definition of household used here is not exactly identical across (and sometimes even within) country samples. The basic concept is one where individuals (aged 18 or above) and married couples count as one household (see Section 7.3.2.1.7 on Sweden for details). The asterisk denotes the way that pages are numbered/indexed in the original publications.

Table 7.A2 Top wealth percentile (P99-100) share of total private wealth in 10 countries

Continued

Table 7.A2 Top wealth percentile (P99-100) share of total private wealth in 10 countries—cont'd

Note: Note that many series contain several breaks in data definitions that may severely affect comparability both over time and across countries. See Table 7.A1 for sources and Section 7.3 for details. “USA (hh)” denotes top wealth shares in the U.S. distribution ofhouseholds (with some exception) and “USA (ind)” top wealth shares in the U.S. distribution of adult individuals.

Table 7.A3 Bottom four percentiles in top 5 wealth percentiles (P95-99) as share of total private wealth in nine countries

Table 7.A3 Bottom four percentiles in top 5 wealth percentiles (P95-99) as share of total private wealth in nine countries—cont'd

Continued

Table 7.A3 Bottom four percentiles in top 5 wealth percentiles (P95-99) as share of total private wealth in nine countries—cont'd

Note: Note that many series contain several breaks in data definitions that may severely affect comparability both over time and across countries. For the United States, the series is based on estimates from mainly the household distribution. See Table 7.A1 for sources and Section 7.3 for details.

Table 7.A4 Top wealth decile (P90-100) as share of total private wealth in eight countries

Continued

Table 7.A4 Top wealth decile (P90-100) as share of total private wealth in eight countries—cont'd

Table 7.A4 Top wealth decile (P90-100) as share of total private wealth in eight countries—cont'd

Note: Note that many series contain several breaks in data definitions that may severely affect comparability both over time and across countries. For the United States, the series is based on estimates from mainly the household distribution. See Table 7.A1 for sources and Section 7.3 for details.

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