THE AMERICAN NIGHTMARE

Americans have another peculiar problem of their own. Fed a steady diet of the “American dream” along with their breakfast cereals, Americans tend to believe, in spite of everything, that although their society is unequal, it rewards industry and effort.

The rosy American view does not reflect reality today in the United States. Along with the general stagnation at the bottom, intergenerational mobility has declined sharply in the US. Mobility is now substantially lower in the United States than it is in Europe. Within the OECD, the child from the bottom quintile most likely to remain stuck in the bottom quintile is from the US (33.1 percent), while the least likely is from Sweden (26.7 percent). The average for continental Europe is below 30 percent. The probability of moving to the top quintile is 7.8 percent in the US, but close to 11 percent on average in Europe.⁸⁰

The places within the United States most likely to cling to the outdated notion of American social mobility, a.k.a. the dream, are actually those least likely to experience it. Americans also generally believe effort is rewarded (with the corollary that the poor must be in part responsible for their own plight), and probably for this reason, those who believe mobility is high also tend to be suspicious of any government effort to address the problems faced by the poor.⁸¹

When overoptimistic perceptions of mobility clash with reality, there is a strong urge to avoid the awkward truth.

By all measures, despair is on the rise in today’s America, and it has become deadly. There has been an unprecedented increase in mortality among less-educated whites in middle age and a decrease in life expectancy. Life expectancy declined in 2015, 2016, and 2017 for all Americans. This grim trend is specific to US whites, and in particular to US whites without college degrees: in all racial groups in the US except the whites, mortality is falling. Other English-speaking countries that have pursued a broadly similar social model to the US, namely the UK, Australia, Ireland, and Canada, are also going through a similar change, albeit in slow motion. In all the other wealthy countries, on the other hand, mortality is going down, and going down faster for the uneducated (who had higher mortality to start with) than for the educated. In other words, when the rest of the world saw convergence between mortality levels of the college educated and the rest, the United States went the other way. Anne Case and Angus Deaton have shown that the increase in mortality is due to a steady rise of “deaths of despair” (such as deaths from alcohol and drug poisoning, suicide, alcoholic liver disease, and cirrhosis) among white middle-aged men and women in America, combined with a slowdown in the progress against other causes of mortality (including heart disease). Self-reported health and mental health follow a similar pattern. Since the 1990s, middle-aged whites with low education are increasingly likely to report themselves in poor health, and they are more likely to complain of various pains and aches.

This is probably not so much a result of low (or unequal) incomes per se. After all, blacks did not fare any better economically over the period, and they are not affected by this trend. And there was no uptick of mortality in Western Europe, even after incomes stagnated during the Great Recession. On the other hand, Russia’s mortality exploded after the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, and like in the United States, most of the increase was due to changes in mortality from vascular disease and violent deaths (mainly suicides, homicides, unintentional poisoning, and traffic incidents) among young and middle-aged adults.⁸³

Case and Deaton also point out that although the increase in mortality in the United States started in the 1990s, it capped a trend that had begun long before that. After the cohort that entered the labor market in the late 1970s, each subsequent cohort fared worse than the preceding one in many different ways.⁸⁴ At every age, among less-educated white Americans, each subsequent cohort was more likely to have difficulty socializing, to be overweight, to experience mental distress and symptoms of depression, and to have chronic pain. They were also more likely to kill themselves or die of a drug overdose. It is the accumulated weight of these deprivations that eventually led to the increase in mortality.

Any number of slow-moving factors could have caused this erosion of the well-being of less-educated Americans. Every single one of these cohorts was also less likely than the preceding one to be in the labor force. For those who worked, their real wages were no higher than those of previous cohorts, and sometimes lower, and they were less likely to have a strong attachment to a particular job or company. They were less likely to be married or in stable relationships. All in all, the white non-college-educated working class collapsed after the 1970s, and this was probably a product of the specific kind of unequal economic growth the country experienced.