Political Operations
Putin has been fomenting a cult of Russia’s prowess in WWII, grooming the Russian public for further liberationist warfare. What Putin needed from the Ukraine invasion was a quick triumph and a sense (back in Russia) that Vladimir Putin had restored the world to what it should be, vindicating communism’s ideological supremacy, Russia’s indomitable military, and the inevitability of Putin’s continued hold on power.
If the first two were shaken, then Putin’s grasp of power would be threatened. The Ukraine offensive had to go well. It has not. Putin’s Special Military Operation
Putin’s media strategy team had a delicate operation in hand.
On the one hand, a breathtakingly swift four day campaign would make excellent propaganda. It could be spun as a demonstration of the great relief with which Ukrainians had welcomed their Russian liberators, and how little resistance the neo-Nazi ruling cabal had been able to muster. The voice of the people of Ukraine was one of gratitude to Russia, and delight in joining a new version of the USSR in achieving prosperity, peace, and progress. Power to the people.
A key element in this intended message was that this was no “war” or “invasion.” It was simply a “special military operation” designed to facilitate a little re-adjustment in international relations between Ukraine and Russia. It had worked so well in Crimea, after all.
On the other hand, the Russian public would not approve of a bloody and protracted conflict with a neighboring state. They might sympathize with Putin’s rationale, but once you began to cremate too many young Russian soldiers, it would be difficult to paint the operation as glorious and victorious. Bots and the Battle for Media Supremacy
Ukraine has tried to match every move made by Russia over the last ten years. My social media feed suggests that there is nothing but Zelensky out there, and that everyone in the world is hostile to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
It may seem so. But Roskomnadzor, the efficient Russian censorship organization, has closed down access to Meta (Facebook and Instagram) for its own citizens. That leaves Russians to state media, which are relentlessly pro-Putin, and to Russian social media platforms Odnoklassniki and Vkontakte, which means, among other things, that the income stream of a host of young influencers has come to a screeching halt. It could be that the vast majority of Russians are backing Putin’s Ukrainian special military operation to the hilt. Or not. Gallup is not able to do any polls in Russia! Zelensky on TikTok
Consider this line of data:
v.zelensky1 Zelensky🇺🇦 12.6K views 1.9K Likes, 8 Comments. TikTok video from Zelensky🇺🇦 (@v.zelensky1): "🇺🇦#ukraine🇺🇦 #zelensky #ukraine #slavaukraine". Another love. 🇺🇦 #ukraine🇺🇦 #zelensky #ukraine #slavaukraine
It’s information from a pro-Zelensky TikTok account. Vladimir Putin also has his TikTok accounts. It is a sign of our times that the premiers of two opponents in a ground war should both embrace a website famous for teenagers doing cool dance moves. Each of them, in their own way, needs all the support they can get. If only they could compete in a dance off and avoid all those thousands of deaths.
But then, Zelensky would almost certainly win. He can do live appearances on vast online screens at award ceremonies in the USA. Putin cannot. A man like Putin could neither accept such a challenge, nor accept such an outcome.