E Coda
Heuristics are mental shortcuts that we rely on instead of exhaustive, complex reasoning processes. Heuristics usually reflect biases that, in many circumstances, serve as simple hypotheses.
Evolution has selected for heuristics that, while generally beneficial, are not infallible. Whether we consider heuristics to be rational or irrational depends on what we mean by rational. The common standard is a formal, explicit logical framework that is appropriate for scientific thinking but can be ill-suited to everyday demands. A more approachable standard is ecological rationality; a pragmatic framework that says, roughly, that what is right is what works. Errors can result when we fall for cognitive illusions that occur when the immediate, direct answers provided by a heuristic disagree with the answers mandated by logical analysis.There are many kinds of biased thinking. Two that are often identified as causing major problems in science are confirmation bias and publication bias. Following Peter Wason, we conclude that rigorous hypothesis-based thinking is the antidote to confirmation bias. Publication bias is made more likely by disparaging our results as “negative data” and “failures.” In general, we find problems easier to understand and solve if they are framed in terms we readily connect with the concrete circumstances that we are familiar with.
We return to these topics in Chapter 13 and review additional ways of dealing with them.