Which Carries More Weight?
“Explanation vs. Prediction: Which Carries More Weight?” is reprinted by permission from Philosophy of Science Association Proceedings 1994 (1995), 156-164. Two contrasting views have emerged in the literature to answer this question.
One is that successful predictions of a theory always carry more weight in favor of that theory than successful explanations. The other is that the reverse is true. In this chapter I deny both claims. Sometimes a successful prediction provides stronger support; sometimes a successful explanation does. Which obtains has nothing to do with whether it is a prediction or an explanation, but rather with the selection procedure used to generate the evidence. (In my The Book of Evidence, chapter 10 is an expanded version of this essay, in which Patrick Maher's “predictionist” account and Clark Glymour's problem of “old evidence” are also examined.)1.
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