The Mathematics of Gang Violence

Using Grossman’s 1995 formulation for killing-enabling factors in America, a mathematical representation has been fitted to characteristics of gangs in Taiwan. Five categories of factors enabling people to commit violent acts are considered.

Demands of Authority = Leader's Authority ? Demand Intensity ? Leader's Proximity ? Perpetrator's Respect

Gang leaders play an influential father-like role, enforce the rules, and recite the history and philosophy of the organization (Leader's Authority = LA). Gang leaders define the boundaries, the rivalries and the levels of violence. Gang leaders demand absolute obedience and instruct other members to punish those who deviate from the spoken demands (Demand Intensity = DI). If the infractions are deemed serious, then the leader may personally murder the offender with other gang members as wit­nesses. The leader hears all and knows all about the members even when far re­moved from the scene of the crime (Proximity of Leader = LP). The perpetrator of violence absolutely respects the leader since it is the leader that defines the future status, wealth, and power of the gang members (Perpetrator's Respect = PR).

Gang Absolution = Gang Support ? Group Number ? Gang Identification ? Gang Proximity

The members of a gang belong to a business organization that acts as surrogate family. As noted by Seagrave (1995), tycoons and gang leaders are sometimes hard to differentiate. The intensity of gang support for killing or for violent acts results from close teamwork in bullying others, showing off, and taking what they want (Gang Support = GS). Anything is right if the gang says it is right or if the leader pronounces the action as right.

Predisposition Toward Violence = Perpetrator Training ? Past Experience ? Individual Temperament

Daily exposure to violence is an important factor conditioning the perpetrator for further and greater acts of violence (Perpetrator Training = PT). The media play a conditioning role and easy access to stolen goods, violent films, pornography, prosti­tutes, drugs, and alcohol supports the corrupting mental environment of the gang. Past injustices experienced in life, such as poverty or child abuse, tend to create a violent disposition (Past Experience = PE). The intensity with which the perpetrator participates in gang consumption rituals and the distance from one's own family de­fine the individual temperament of the perpetrator (Individual Temperament = IT).

Distance from the Victim = Physical Distance x Emotional

Distance ? Social Distance

Physical distance is commonly provided by guns and on rare occasions vehicles, but knives are sometimes used to kill, torture, or dismember people (Physical Dis­tance = PD). The emotional distance between victim and assailant can be very close, considering that the island is fairly homogeneous and experiences little race conflict. Leaders may require a member to act against another member regardless of emo­tional ties (Emotional Distance = ED). A larger part of the equation is the hate and antagonism caused by envy of other people’s wealth and power. Unless the gang has evolved into a rich and powerful business organization, the social distance between rich and poor is an important factor stimulating violence (Social Distance = SD).

Target Attractiveness = Relevance of Victim ? (Payoff - Perpetrator’s Risk)

Taiwan gangs will kill to obtain weapons since weapons are the tools used to in­stantly satisfy needs. Thus, if a target has a weapon and the target is not a gang member or a police person, then the attractiveness of the target is high. The rele­vance of the victim is related to political or police pressures, rival gang actions, fam­ily ties, or business transactions that impact the gang’s welfare and status (Relevance of Victim = RV). The pay-off for violence (Payoff = PO) will be status and owner­ship of the victims’ possessions. The potential for retaliation or the creation of un­foreseen situations that endanger the payoff is called the perpetrator’s risk (Perpetra­tor’s Risk = PR).

The probability for violence (PV) is formulated as follows:

PV = Demands of Authority ? Gang Absolution ? Predisposition toward Violence ? Distance from the Victim ? Target Attractiveness

PV = DA x GA x PV x DV x TA

Each sub-factor of the model uses a baseline weight of 1. In Table 2, a sample calculation demonstrates the probability of violence for a gang. The demands for au­thority and the absolution of fellow gang members are assumed to be extremely in­fluential and therefore increase the likelihood that a gang member acts violently. For this reason, the sub-factor weights selected for the demand intensity, the leader’s proximity, the leader’s authority, individual respect, and gang support and identity exceed the baseline weight of 1. Furthermore, the stronger the influence of authority and the absolution of the gang, the more attractive is the target (higher payoff). A gang member’s predisposition toward violence and the distance from the victim fall below the baseline value if there is a strong spiritual belief (or faith) in the gang and its leader. In summary, the category totals that most strongly influence the outcome are the demands of authority, gang absolution, and the attractiveness of the target.

Conclusion

The mathematical model fits the argument that Taiwan gangs have the highest poten­tial for violence during the early stages of formation and during the later stages of maturity and decline. New gangs are extremely dangerous because the initial payoff (e.g., obtaining money and weapons) gives the leader immediate validity and the gang as a whole greater faith in the organization. But if the gang and its members al­ready have money, weapons, political power, and business operations, then the leader's authority is diluted, new targets are not attractive, and the potential for vio­lence is reduced. However, mature gangs become violent again when individual gang members solicit their own following or as society moves to establish law and order. Attempts to break up mature gangs leads to gang warfare, cycles of retaliation, and the internationalization of gangs.

Using the arguments above, Taiwan is experiencing increased gang violence be­cause of the breakup of older gangs by police and because of the emergence of new gangs. Some of the older gang leaders have fled the island, and the Central News Agency (Yang 1997) reports that over 100 gang leaders are hiding in Mainland China. The new gangs that emerge to take their place create the most difficult cases for the police to solve since they have fewer business assets and a very shallow, yet very faithful, network of associates. The new gangs are extremely violent and more frequently engage in kidnapping and murder rather than money laundering, bid­rigging, and game-fixing as do the mature gangs. This is not to say that mature gangs do not commit violent acts, because they do. Rather, the violent acts of mature gangs are frequently acts of retaliation that do not involve the general public (relevance of victim > payoff). New gangs have no bounds about who may be their target as long as the payoff is high (payoff > relevance of the victim).

The continuing efforts of the Taiwan police to arrest and document gang net­works are important means to control gang violence. However, serious threats re­main. First, gang leaders living abroad might return in the future or create interna­tional networks. Second, little effort has been made to study and profile individuals likely to emerge as new gang leaders. Without knowing the environment and the be­haviors that give rise to gang leadership, little can be done to eliminate the growing violence. Finally, Confucius recognized that poverty and a low position in life gen­erates contempt in the eyes of others, but taught that dedication to duty, frugality, and benevolence are the essence of wealth and respectability (Ku 1984). Since too few people are teaching and practicing traditional values, Taiwan's consumerism is defining the public's standards, priorities, and values. As long as conspicuous con­sumption is valued more than non-conspicuous civic mindedness and hard work, gangs will maintain their spiritual appeal.

References

Chaffee, Aurell, Barth, Cort, Dombrowski, Fasano, Weaver. (1969). Area Handbook for the Republic of China. Washington, D.C.: The American University Press.

European Council of Commerce and Trade (ECCT). (1996). Position Papers 1996/97. Taipei: ECCT.

Free China Review. (1997).

Gilligan, James. (1996). Violence, Our Deadly Epidemic and Its Causes. New York: Grosset/Putnam Books.

Grossman, David. (1995). On Killing—The Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill in War and Society. Boston: Little Brown and Company.

Kavanaugh, John F. (1982). Following Christ in a Consumer Society, The Spiritual­ity of Cultural Resistance. New York: Orbis Books.

Ku, Hung-ming. (1984). English Translation of the Analects. Taipei: Shin Sheng Daily News.

Liao, Cheng-Hao. (1996). Speak loudly and carry a big stick.

Longenecker, David, and T. Yu. (1994). The Beijing-Taipei struggle for interna­tional recognition, from the Niger Affair to the U.N. Asian Survey 34.5 (May, 1994): 475-488.

Raguin, Yves. (1974). Buddhism, Sixteen Lessons on Buddhism and Christianity. Taipei: Ricci Institute for Chinese Studies.

Seagrave, Sterling. (1995). Lords of the Rim. New York: Bantam Press.

Shaw, Thomas A. (1994). “We like to have fun,” leisure and discovery of the self in Taiwan’s “new” middle class. Modern China, An Interdisciplinary Journal 20.4 (October, 1994): 416-45.

Taiwan Executive Yuan. (1996a). Taiwan Statistical Data Book. Taipei: Council for Planning and Development.

-----. (1996b). Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, Taipei: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics. 22.10 (1996): 20.

-----. (1996c). Urban and Regional Development Statistics. Taipei: Urban and Housing Development Department, pp.136-137.

Trappey, Charles V. (1997). The Taiwan retail market. Report AIT-97-203 prepared for the Commercial Section of the American Institute in Taiwan, William Brekke, Chief.

Veblen, Thorstein. (1953/1899). The Theory of the Leisure Class. New York: New American Library.

Yang, Danielle. (1997). 100 gang leaders have fled to mainland China: Justice Min­ister. Taiwan Headline News. Taipei: Central News Agency, Wednesday, 12 February 1997.

Table 1. Violent events in Taiwan history

Table 2. Factor weights for gang violence