CONCLUDING REFLECTIONS

A chapter of the history of economic thought regarding income distribution theories does not lend itself easily to a summary in the way of a few main conclusions. Looking back on a two-hundred-year-long history, however, it does induce one to offer a few general reflections on the nature of the field and its development.

Accordingly, I will make a few remarks on two general issues. The first concerns the relationship of economic theory to empirical evidence, in particular before the time when econometrics was established as the main framework for empirical study. The second set of remarks relates to Ricardo’s characterization of income distribution as the principal problem of economics: Does the history of economic thought confirm his view of the importance of the subject?

1.4.1 TheoryandEvidence

This chapter has been primarily an account of theories of income distribution; to include also the statistical and empirical work that has been done over the two centuries covered by the survey would be impossible within the confines of a single article. However, a brief discussion may be in order regarding the connection between theoretical and empirical work during the period. Thus, an interesting question to consider is to what extent the theorists of income distribution were aware of and were influenced by the empirical work that was undertaken at about the same time. In particular, the nineteenth century witnessed the growth of official statistics covering both the development of national income and its distribution.

The questions of awareness and influence are very general, and it is not easy to provide clear and simple answers. One reason for this is that the influence of empirical knowledge on economic theorists may have been rather indirect; some characteristics of the real economy may have been considered to be common knowledge, so that theorists saw no need to provide exact documentation.

But one should realize that there was not always agreement about what that supposedly common knowledge actually was. A case in point is John Stuart Mill’s disagreement with Adam Smith regarding the structure of wages. As we have seen, Smith believed that labor market competition would ensure that occupational wage rates would tend to compensate for noneconomic advantages and disadvantages, whereas Mill claimed that quite to the contrary, wage differentials reinforced the inequalities arising from different working conditions. In the eighteenth century, empirical data on this issue were presumably hard to come by; nevertheless, Smith did refer to empirical observations in support of his hypothesis, although by modern standards these references are both incomplete and unsystematic. By the middle of the next century, however, the situation had changed, and it would have been possible for Mill to provide if not direct evidence at least some empirical illustrations that could throw light on this matter and more generally on the distribution of income. But he obviously felt no need to do this. Well into the next century, Hicks (1932) wrote about the effects of competition on the structure of wages with hardly any reference to empirical relationships. In fact, the only instance in which he did refer to empirical evidence is where he cited data for wages of agricultural laborers in Lancashire in 1794, showing how they vary with the distance to the nearest manufacturing center.^[49]

To blame the economists of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries for not supplying formal statistical tests of their theories would of course be pointless because at that time econometrics was not even in its infancy (see Morgan, 1990). What one might nevertheless have expected was a greater interest in drawing on data that could illustrate the importance and relevance of theoretical reasoning.

From this point of view, a more striking instance of the lack of connection between theoretical and empirical work is Knut WickselTs belief that real wages had not risen significantly over the past two centuries, as seen from the perspective of 1901.

At that time, there had actually accumulated a large amount of statistical data documenting the significant rise in real wages during the nineteenth century in countries such as Germany, Italy, Great Britain, and the United States (see, e.g., Bresciani-Turroni, 1939) as well as the Scandinavian countries. The data for Germany were particularly extensive and at Wicksell’s time had been used in academic studies by several German economists. Wicksell read (and wrote) German, but for whatever reason this work had little or no influence on his own thinking. Ifhe had utilized it, he would have seen that his belief was firmly rejected by the empirical evidence.^[50] But at least on this particular issue, he must have felt no need to confront his theoretical conclusions with statistical evidence.^[51]

The history of the interaction—or lack of it—between theorists and empirical researchers in the study of income distribution is a large topic in itself that cannot be surveyed here, particularly because it cannot be separated from the broader issue of the connection between theoretical and empirical research in economics more generally. The present examples of the lack of such a connection should simply be taken as an indication that at least in the preeconometric age, there were sometimes large gaps between theoretical and empirical insights.

1.4.2 The Principal Problem of Political Economy?

Toward the end of this review ofthe development of theories of income distribution, it is natural to reconsider the quotation from Ricardo with which we began. Is Ricardo’s view reflected in the actual importance that the theory of income distribution has had in the history of economics? It may well have been true that Ricardo in this way expressed his conviction of the nature of economics, but his vision must be interpreted in light of the state of the science at the time in which he lived as well as the nature of society. To a modern economist, the proposition that the functional distribution of income between workers, capitalists, and landowners should be considered the most important problem in economics will hardly be a convincing one.

One of the reasons why Ricardo gave such emphatic priority to the problem may have been a conviction that the analysis of this issue also went far to explain the personal distribution in a society with a modest degree of mobility between social and economic classes. Another reason may have been that he did not see the economic theory of his day as providing a set of analytical tools and concepts that would be useful in a more disaggregated analysis of the personal distribution of income.

All this has of course changed. With the marginalist revolution of the late nineteenth century, economists acquired a set of theoretical tools that gradually came to improve their opportunities for analysis of both the positive and normative aspects of income distribution. But to what extent did they exploit these opportunities? When one reads the contributions of the early marginalists, it becomes obvious that they applied their new theories mainly to the explanation of price formation in the market for commodities and less so in the markets for factors of production. When the general equilibrium followers of Walras put the finishing touches to the neoclassical theory of competitive markets, commodities and factors were treated symmetrically with the result that less attention was given to the special features of the markets for labor, capital, and natural resources. Labor economics was for a long time considered to be a field on the outskirts of theory-based economics, and the literature on financial markets paid little or no attention—and continues to pay little or no attention—to the study of the personal distribution of income and wealth. Only in recent decades has formal economic theory begun to catch up on its neglect of the determination of income distribution. But this neglect is still visible in the allocation of space in introductory textbooks and books on microeconomic theory.

These remarks pertain in particular to the positive economics of income distribution.

But the attention to normative issues has fluctuated even more. Questions of distributive justice were certainly discussed by the classical economists but without the benefit of a formal theoretical structure. With the breakthrough of marginal utility theory the situation changed, and many economists saw no objection to utilizing the hypothesis of decreasing marginal utility both to explain consumer demand and to justify the utilitarian argument in favor of income equality. This approach suffered a setback in the early nineteenth century with the adoption of ordinalism and the ideas of a value-free science. Later on, it once again became accepted that welfare economics could make an important contribution in clarifying the borderline between statements of facts and values, whereas since the 1960s, as Atkinson (2001) has pointed out, many modern textbooks seem to have adopted the view that the basic elements of welfare economics do not form a central part of the training of the modern economist. In regard to the theory of income distribution, many economists seem be held back from a discussion of distributive justice, presumably because it will lead them into areas where they have to confront issues that are of an ethical or philosophical nature.⁴

The desirable awareness of the relationship between positive and normative approaches to issues of income distribution may also be promoted through better knowledge of the history of thought in the area. Here, there is definitely room for improvement. History provides many examples of how new theories have been formulated without apparent awareness of the work of earlier economists. As an example, the modern theory of optimal income taxation could probably have been developed and presented with a broader appeal to the general economics profession if it had been set in the context of the work by earlier utilitarian economists such as Edgeworth and Pigou. It is undeniable that economics has many of the features of a cumulative science in which new theories replace old ones because of their higher explanatory power or because they lead to better insights in the problems that arise in the design of economic policy.

But even a cumulative science can benefit from awareness of its roots.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I am indebted to Tony Atkinson, Branko Milanovic, Martin Ravallion, and the participants in the authors’ conference in Paris for many helpful comments and suggestions.

A reviewer of my book on the history of economic thought (Sandmo, 2011) wrote, “I hate the word social justice because I do not know what it means.”

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Source: Atkinson Anthony, Bourguignon François. Handbook of Income Distribution. Volume 2A. North Holland,2014. — 2366 p.. 2014

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CONCLUDING REFLECTIONS

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