CONCLUSION
We now briefly summarize the analysis. The technological trends have enabled affordable online video content, and this is transforming the medium into an Internet of Entertainment.
This change, in turn, creates major user demand that is a driver for telecom network infrastructure upgrade investments.Taken together, these developments will lead to a rapid acceleration of innovation in video genres and technologies, and to content styles that will be a major impetus to cultural expression. The migration of TV to a distribution over the Internet has been widely noted. But the widening of content options and providers, as important as it is, is less fundamental in the long run than the breakdown of the system of fairly uniform TV technology in favor of a system of multiple parallel TVs. As the video system migrates onto the Internet and as TV sets become computer-like devices, different technologies can be offered to do what we used to call television. Competing providers of various technology modules, distribution systems, and content technology will emerge, and their rivalries will move TV from a system of technical uniformity to one of great diversity. Inevitably, this will have implications for new and different content types, styles, and genres.
Putting together the technical elements enables TV to become a high-resolution, immersive, participatory, personalized, social, and world-wide experience. Linear video will most likely continue to be around, in better quality. Even so, the new style of immersive content will be the frontier of technical and cultural creativity and will challenge established styles and industries. The emerging diversity of approaches, industries, companies, nations, and regulatory approaches will lead to a fragmentation of the Internet into a federated system. Similarly, the TV system will be fragmented.
In this technological and organizational centrifugalism, bridging intermediaries will emerge, which we call ‘media clouds’. These media clouds have major advantages that will make them the central institutions of the media system. There are also major economies of scale and scope leading to a concentrated market structure. Some of these trends, players, and issues will emerge first in highly developed online countries but the same dynamics will spread to most of the rest of the world.This will lead to policy issues of how to maintain a media and Internet system that is competitive, diverse and open. The new environment creates a set of fairly predictable problems and conflicts. They are the fundamental trade-offs that each generation must renegotiate. We should do so in the present, even as we gaze forward to the new horizons.
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