CONCLUSIONS

This chapter shows that substantial progress has been made in the analysis of income mobility over the last few decades, much of which has been stimulated by the increasing availability of suitable longitudinal data.

Although the availability of good data has increased substantially, many substantive issues of interest are not yet resolved. Our discussion of within-generation mobility revealed few clear-cut conclusions about whether mobility has been increasing over time or decreasing in particular and whether mobility is greater in one country rather than another. The same can be said in regard to the evidence about income mobility between generations. In short, there remains much scope for systematic empirical analysis.

We have also shown that there has been a substantial increase in the number of mobil­ity measures per se, but the literature has not yet matured in the same way as the mea­surement of (cross-sectional) income inequality has. Relatively underdeveloped are measures of individual income growth and, especially, of income risk.

Our discussion of income mobility has focused on mobility between two time points (with the exception of the discussion of mobility as longer-term inequality reduction). This simplifies the measurement task substantially, but does not remove the need for development of methods for describing individual income trajectories over multiple periods. In the intergenerational context, the interest is in not simply the similarities or differences between parents’ and children’s income, but also the prevalence of “rags to riches and back in three generations” trajectories (for example) relative to other patterns. In the intragenerational context, we are interested not simply in each person’s total lifetime income, but also in the patterns of variation over calendar time and age, and how these patterns differ across individuals.

With multidimensional (multiperiod) data, the natural reaction of most analysts is to fit models, with a small number of parameters summarizing the key differences between trajectory patterns. In the Introduction, we briefly cited literatures about the modeling of incomes within or between generations. One of the greatest challenges facing income mobility researchers is to develop tractable models of household income dynamics (not simply earnings dynamics for individuals) both within and between generations. Compared to the field of mobility measurement that we have reviewed in this chapter, mobility modeling is underdeveloped and deserves greater attention in the future.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We wish to thank Daniele Checchi, Philippe Van Kerm, and especially Tony Atkinson and Francois Bourguignon, for their comments and suggestions on early drafts of this chapter. S. P. Jenkins acknowledges partial financial support for his research from the core funding of the Research Centre on Micro-Social Change by the UK Economic and Social Research Council Core (Grant RES-518-28-001) and the Uni­versity of Essex.

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