OUTLOOK

Prospects for legacy news organizations Although the Internet has brought agile new competitors into the news field, traditional news providers look likely to remain domi­nant in online news provision in most, if not all, markets.

Role of brands Brand strength and total reach will likely become the key performance metrics, replacing circulation. News providers will focus on building brand awareness and trust and be agnostic concerning the channel by which this is done. They will seek to maximize involvement with users, build a relationship with them, and shape them into a community, as well as capture their data, and use all of this to generate advertising income. This strategy will be backed by ‘one brand, many platforms’ business models that are multi-product, multi-platform and multi-revenue stream.

Long tail of revenue-generating activities Legacy news businesses will continue to develop their long tails of activities designed to generate revenues from existing assets and capabilities, in the hope that these will eventually support their online businesses and compensate for the loss of print advertising. In addition to news products, the skills and expertise that go into the creation of news products will also be sold to other business, and to members of the public who would like to acquire them. The number of public events - festivals, conferences, seminars, and so on - will increase further.

Good prospects for mobile There are grounds for optimism concerning online news serv­ices on mobile devices, which have now become a primary gateway for accessing online news in many countries. While the Internet grew up with a free-content ethos, consumers are accustomed to paying for mobile services, and robust payment systems are in place that will potentially allow seamless micropayment. Further, consumers that own mobile devices, particularly tablets, tend to come from more affluent socioeconomic groups. A survey found that 87 percent of newspaper and magazine publishers in the USA have an iPad app (AAM, 2012).

Pursuit of legal remedies In some countries publishers will also continue their efforts to improve their financial situation via legal channels. Aggregators’ practice of ‘scraping’ may drive traffic to news sites, but is regarded by publishers in a number of European markets as copyright infringement. Legislation has been proposed in Germany, France and Belgium that would require aggregators to pay for linking to and taking excerpts from publishers’ websites. Some publishers have also sought legal redress for such activi­ties that they felt were illegal. For example, in 2005 Agence France-Presse (AFP) sued Google, claiming it had infringed AFP’s copyright by reproducing its pictures and articles.

Online news has also brought public service broadcasters and newspapers into direct competition. In Germany and Switzerland there have been heated debates over whether Internet portals and online products fall into the public service broadcasting (PSB) remit, and whether PSBs should be allowed to advertise online. Germany’s legislation, the RStV Interstate Treaty on Broadcast and Telemedia, initiated in April 2011, introduced strict limits on public broadcasters’ online activities.

Continued scaling back of print activities The outlook for print newspapers will not improve.

Investigative journalism under threat Integrated newsrooms - and the reduction in overall staffing levels - have implications for the future of investigative and other forms of serious long-form journalism. The majority of such reporting has traditionally been done by legacy media, particularly print media and news agencies, and the vast majority of journalists overall remain employed by print media. It would be very hard for social media or a blog to challenge large vested interests in the way The Guardian did by expos­ing phone hacking in the UK or the Associated Press did in revealing the extent of the New York City Police Department’s spying on Muslim communities.

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