Lawless Violence and Impunity in the Age of Electoral Democracy, c. 1990 to the Present
The drive in favour of democratic inclusiveness, interrupted by nearly three decades of military rule, resumed spectacularly in the 1990s, the decade that marks the onset of the fourth phase of state formation.
Civilian governments everywhere but in Cuba were being chosen in free elections. The armed forces appeared to have stepped away permanently from direct intervention in state affairs. The state formation process was generating institutions capable of responding successfully to some of the core tenets of liberal democracy, above all requirements for reliable mechanisms of popular consent in the form of fair elections open to all, and the subordination of the armed forces to elected civilian governments. The popular revulsion against military rule, in countries where many people had often welcomed coups to remove incompetent civilian governments, found expression in the creation of commissions of inquiry (‘truth commissions') in thirteen countries between 1979 and 2007 to ascertain as precisely as possible the methods of repression and to identify and quantify both the perpetrators and the victims. Torture, often bestially sadistic, had been a routine instrument of military rule, as was the intentional killing of unarmed civilians considered to be subversives. Tens of thousands of people were ‘disappeared' - their bodies secretly burned, buried, or dropped in the ocean. Others died in collective massacres carried out by army patrols in the countryside, often against civilians suspected of aiding insurgent combatants. Even in civilian- governed (but authoritarian) Mexico from the 1960s until the early 1980s, under the rule of the official Institutional Revolutionary Party at least 645 persons were ‘disappeared' by government agents, at least another ninety-nine were summarily executed and more than 2,000 tortured, according to a five-year investigation sponsored by the first non-PRI government to win the presidency in eight decades and released in 2006. Not included in that accounting was the public massacre by Mexican security forces of roughly 300 unarmed, pro-democracy protesters in the capital on 2 October 1968; revulsion over the ‘Tlatelolco massacre' marked the beginning of Mexico's slow transition away from one-party rule.[870]By the middle of the new century's second decade, some twenty-five years after the transition to democracy had begun, Latin America's commitment to electoral democracy and civilian rule was still holding firm, with the exceptions of Cuba (where the first had never existed) and Venezuela (where a leftwing government allied with Cuba's sought to abolish competitive elections). Organised political violence, whether that of a repressive military force, a guerrilla army, a gang of urban terrorists or a party militia, had almost entirely faded from Latin America. However, institutions long inimical to liberal-democratic practice and social peace continued to flourish, and in some respects, as we shall see, the state's capacity in many countries to carry out basic policing functions and to administer justice appeared to have diminished significantly during the democratisation phase. In almost every country, the fourth phase of state formation coincided with a fundamental shift towards a consensus, one more widely held than any since late colonial times, in favour of liberal democratic principles as the core criteria of legitimacy. Curiously, however, the twenty-first-century consensus also happened to share with its late-colonial analogue what Taylor authoritatively styled the latter's ‘nearly always conditional and incomplete' character.11 Murderous violence, often wreathed by and intertwined with the very state institutions designed to prevent it; an unremitting record of spectacular and seldom-punished acts of malfeasance among public officials; and a pervasive, society-wide indifference to the rule of law all persisted well into the twenty- first century.
That was enough to provide, for many, a plausible justification for reversing democratisation and restoring the military's prerogative to intervene in the political process and suspend elections.[871] [872]The Latin American state's tentative and improvisational character, while particularly obvious in the first phase, has therefore survived in the form of violence-inducing patterns of ‘competitive state-making', ‘state capture' or ‘the criminalisation of the state', in the varied terminology of a growing academic literature on the subject. In parts of Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Peru and elsewhere, criminal organisations competed - often successfully - with the state for the loyalty of a region's populace. They did so by erecting and sustaining transnational systems of production and exchange - illegal economies typically centred on narcotics, but often extending into complementary services such as extortion, kidnapping, murder for hire, and contraband in firearms, human labour or environmental resources. The criminals (who occasionally presented themselves as social revolutionaries) earned a kind of local legitimacy protected by their capacity to generate revenue in sufficient quantity to buy off agents of the state and to develop the military power necessary to ward off competitors and the state's own law enforcement agents. The latter sometimes played a double role as business competitors in the illegal economies. Cities were no less subject to competitive state building; in November 2010, it took Brazilian military and police forces a week to recover control of the Complexo de Alemao district of Rio de Janeiro from the drug gangs that had governed it for years, at the cost of thirty-seven lives.
The shift away from traditional authoritarian forms of rule to competitively elected civilian government had added a measure of accountability and transparency - exposing flaws, but achieving little in overall effectiveness, and highlighting as never before the linkage between public violence and state-sanctioned impunity for, and collaboration with, wrongdoers.
It was now ‘public knowledge', two prominent Mexican jurists wrote in 2008, that the criminal justice system of Mexico was ‘completely bankrupt' and therefore ‘useless for trapping the most dangerous criminals'. No Mexican would be surprised, they asserted, by the statistical record: 85 per cent of victims never file a complaint, 99 per cent of offenders avoid conviction, 92 per cent of criminal hearings occur without the presence of a judge, 60 per cent of arrest warrants are never executed, 40 per cent of prison inmates have never been convicted, and 80 per cent of detainees have not spoken to the judge who convicted them.[873] Across Latin America, civil disputes that might have been settled through negotiations or within the judicial system were routinely terminated by assassination; only in high-profile cases did arrests occur. In Honduras, Berta Caceres, a prominent Indigenous leader of a movement to stop the construction of a hydroelectric dam, ignored numerous death threats. She was shot to death on 3 March 2016 as she slept in her home. In 2018, seven men were convicted in her murder, a rare step in a country where 123 environmental activists were said to have been murdered between 2009 and 2016. By 2012, Latin America had become ‘the most dangerous place on earth', with 33 per cent of the world's homicides (and 8 per cent of its population); its rate of 20 homicides per 100,000 persons was three times the world average and the highest of any world region.[874]The failure to administer justice in much of Latin America was not a fourth-phase innovation; nor was there anything novel about its sources - a combination of the venality, impotence and incapacity that had largely characterised the region's state structures for two centuries. What defied expectations was its continuity even after the unparalleled, and apparently lasting, transition to representative institutions and electoral democracy. As Latin America commemorated two centuries of independent selfgovernment, only distant echoes remained of the pronunciamiento, the populist caudillo, social revolution and the military junta. What endured almost everywhere was the violence-laced crisis of order that had followed immediately on independence. Its source was no less familiar: a fragile, shallow and easily disrupted level of social recognition for the legitimating principles (now, liberal-democratic) of the state, almost everywhere.
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